The GPU Never Dies

I think gpus will not depreciate

By s

What’s inside

• CRWV CoreWeave: Purest expression: its debt is collateralized by GPUs it says will outlive expectations
• NBIS Nebius Group: Neocloud whose economics assume multi-year rental income from each chip generation
• ORCL Oracle: Huge leased AI fleet amortized over long lives; wins if residual values hold
• NVDA NVIDIA: Its asset-class pitch rests on A100s and H100s still being rented years later
• AVGO Broadcom: Custom accelerators extend the life of inference fleets rather than junking them
• TSM TSMC: Every generation stays in service, so new orders add rather than replace capacity
• MSFT Microsoft: Moved to six-year depreciation; the belief says that schedule is still conservative
• AMZN Amazon: Jassy argues servers break even in under three years and keep earning after
• GOOGL Alphabet: Runs older silicon for inference instead of retiring it, validating long useful life
• VRT Vertiv: Racks and cooling keep earning across multiple chip generations in the same hall
• EQIX Equinix: Leases outlast any single GPU vintage if tenants keep old fleets racked
• ETN Eaton: Electrical gear depreciates over decades, the opposite end of the GPU debate
• BX Blackstone Inc.: Anchored CoreWeave's GPU-backed term loan; a direct bet on residual values
• APO Apollo Global Management: Insurance-style capital underwriting long-dated compute collateral

Why it could work

If four- and six-year-old GPUs keep renting at firm prices, AI capex is far more profitable than bears assume and everything from neoclouds to GPU-backed credit reprices upward.

What could break it

Cheaper custom inference ASICs or a flood of low-cost compute could collapse rental rates, exposing understated depreciation and the collateral behind billions in debt.

For learning only. Not investment advice.